lunedì 14 febbraio 2011
Wikileaks : Viewing cable 06LIMA1452,
14 Febbraio 2011
DE RUEHPE #1452 1022248
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 122248Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9811
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3256
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9317
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0245
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0423
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6674
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4218
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
S E C R E T LIMA 001452
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SEEKS EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE IN CEMENTING DEMOCRATIC COALITION AGAINST HUMALA
Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d) .
¶1. (S) SUMMARY: APRA party Co-Secretary General and Congressman Jorge del Castillo, in a 4/12 breakfast with Polcouns, said that the Apristas were confident that their presidential candidate Alan Garcia would reach the run-off against Union por el Peru's Ollanta Humala. Del Castillo explained that APRA was looking to cement a coalition of democratic parties to defeat Humala in the second round and to promote governability after Garcia takes office. He requested the Embassy's good offices in helping convince Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores to concede once it becomes clear that she cannot catch Garcia (Flores has vowed to remain in the race "until the last ballot is counted") and in establishing links to Christian evangelical candidate Humberto Lay Sun, who captured four percent of the vote. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (S) According to del Castillo:
-- APRA had legal representatives (personeros), who witnessed and recorded the vote counts at practically all of the 88,481 voting tables, and the reports they filed on the results have Garcia holding off Flores, although the final margin may be in the 50,000-70,000 vote range, rather than the 119,698 reported by the Office of National Electoral Processes (ONPE) in its latest vote count (Septel).
-- Flores and her Unidad Nacional (UN) team have much the same information, and know that they have lost.
-- Nonetheless, Flores refuses to concede, vowing to remain in the race "until the last ballot is counted."
-- On the one hand, Flores' position is understandable, as, pushed by her spokesman, UN Congressman Xavier Barron, she went out on a limb by proclaiming victory over Garcia on election night and now has UN activists pressing her to hold out until all the votes are in. (NOTE: Barron has since criticized ONPE for not including the results from challenged tally sheets in its vote counts, even though the law requires ONPE to omit these results until the National Electoral Board rules on their validity - See Septel. END NOTE.)
-- On the other hand, it could take three weeks for all of the votes to be counted and certified. Three weeks is an eternity in politics, and if the democratic forces remain divided during that time, leaving the campaigning to Humala, it will enable the latter to establish an unchallenged momentum that will be difficult to counter later.
-- By Easter Sunday sufficient results should be in to demonstrate clearly that Flroes has no/no chance to overtake Garcia.
-- At that time, the Embassy could greatly assist the effort to unite the democratic forces against Humala by using its good offices to encourage Flores to concede and enter into discussions with APRA on cooperating in the run-off campaign to defeat Humala and on establishing a working relationship and/or co-participation in the Garcia administration that would follow.
-- The Embassy's assistance in establishing links between APRA and Christian evangelical candidate Humberto Lay Sun (who received over four percent of the vote) would also be appreciated.
-- He (del Castillo) has already opened discussions with Jose Miguel Morales, President of CONFIEP (Peru's largest business association) on the need to prioritize cooperation between an APRA government and the private sector in addressing social needs in the rural sector: "We agreed that failure to address these needs will result in Humala being elected in the first round in 2011."
¶3. (S) Polcouns said that he would inform his superiors about del Castillo's requests. POWERS